All eyes on the real one - Musharraf-Hurriyat meeting

Among all hoopla the real thing is going to happen on Sunday! The Musharraf-Hurriyat meeting on Sunday will be crucial for India and Pakistan relations as well as future of Kashmir.

According to media reports, much water has flown down the river Jehlum since the Pakistani president Parvez Musharraf last met the separatist leadership of Jammu and Kashmir. President Musharraf will meet a divided Hurriyat this time with its two factions poles apart although it is likely that both factions will be roped in for a joint meeting with him.

The separate meetings will take place tomorrow in the backdrop of just inaugurated Muzaffarabad bus service. Both Hurriyat factions, the sources said, were not taken into confidence for starting the bus service and this has come as a major disappointment for both.

Sources said the leaders of two factions and those outside Hurriyat had sought separate meetings with Pakistani president but Pakistan is insisting for a joint meeting, purposely, to bridge differences between them.

The last time the separatist leaders met Musharraf was in 2001 when he was in the country to participate in the Agra summit. Hurriyat leadership met Musharraf as a single unit under the chairmanship of Prof Abdul Gani and the then People's Conference (PC) chairman Abdul Gani Lone was one of the most vocal voices. The only Hurriyat constituent to stay out was JKLF, which insisted on tripartite talks.

All other constituents then had unflinching faith in Pakistani leadership and even Musharraf assured them that Pakistan "will not buckle under any pressure" and "continue its moral and political support to Kashmiris". Both the then NDA government and opposition Congress party were upset by the meet and it was president's steadfastness that made it happen.

Hurriyat no longer is a united house now. The death of PC chairman gave the first major blow to its unity and the subsequent "participation" of one of Hurriyat constituents in the assembly elections in 2002 dealt a death knell to it. The Hurriyat was divided with Mirwaiz and Geelani emerging as the leaders of two factions while JKLF maintained distance from both.

Over the last several months, Geelani has openly admitted his differences with Pakistani leadership on a host of issues. Despite the reservations of the hardline Hurriyat to the opening of road, Pakistan went ahead with it.

Geelani finds the move a shift in Pakistan's traditional stand and fears the latter has diluted its stand under US pressure. "Before leaving for New Delhi, Geelani said that he will seek assurances from Pakistan that it will continue its moral and political support to Kashmiris and during last visit the assurance came without asking. This is self explanatory and shows the differences of Geelani with Pakistan over these latest developments", said a close aide of Geelani.

While the moderate Hurriyat faction hailed the opening of the road and said it should be viewed as a "human issue", its leadership is also disappointed that Pakistan did not take it into confidence for making happen the "biggest CBM" in years and giving credit to their adversary, chief minister Mufti Mohammad Sayeed for it.

The second meeting with Musharraf, as was the case with the first one, will also focus on the involvement of Kashmiris in the dialogue process. Both Hurriyat factions, although with some alterations, are viying for it. Mirwaiz, on his part, said he will seek a role for Kashmiris in the process and an assurance from president "to use his influence" in persuading New Delhi for allowing them to go to Pakistan. Also, they are expecting to get a "go-ahead" for the proposed meet of the moderate Hurriyat faction with Prime Minister Dr Manmohan Singh.

Pakistan's immediate priority is to ensure Hurriyat re-unification, the reason they are roping in all separatists for a joint meet. How long will tomorrow's meet go in breaking the ice will become evident but given the bitterness between them, it appears some more exercises are needed.